Ryanair’s Boss Warns Next Year’s Fares Could Jump by a Fifth

Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary used an October 20 press conference in Brussels to deliver a warning for anyone planning travel in 2027. Fares across Europe, he said, are likely to rise significantly, and Brussels Signal reports he put the possible increase at up to 20 percent over the next year. His main reason is oil. The Cyprus Mail notes that Brent crude closed at $109.86 on the Friday before his remarks, its highest level since May.

Ryanair’s exposure is the key detail. The airline locked in fuel at about $67 a barrel for this year, but O’Leary said it is 85 percent unhedged for 2027, and he expects fuel costs to double once the current protection expires. He added that Ryanair guarantees no fuel surcharges, meaning any increase would show up in base fares. Other airlines have little or no hedging for next year either, so the pressure is unlikely to be unique to one carrier.

The other pressure is taxes and carbon costs. O’Leary pointed to Belgium’s aviation tax, which rises from €2 to €7 per departing passenger in January 2027, and to the end of free EU emissions allowances this year, which means airlines now buy permits at an estimated €70 to €100 per tonne. In response, Ryanair is moving six aircraft out of Belgium this winter, cutting 20 routes and more than a million seats, with Charleroi losing 13 routes.

O’Leary has a record of using forecasts to press governments, and he warned that another million seats could go in summer 2027 if the Belgian tax stays. Still, the fuel arithmetic is real. If you are planning European trips for next year, booking early and watching fares across several carriers is the practical move. Treat the 20 percent figure as an upper-end warning rather than a certainty.

Sources: Brussels Signal, Cyprus Mail