United’s Fuel Bill Just Rewrote Its Year, and Your Fare May Follow

United Airlines told investors this week that fuel is taking a much bigger bite out of its year than expected. The airline guided to fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.50 to $1.50 a share, well below the $1.76 analysts had expected. It assumes jet fuel will average $4.80 a gallon, about $0.45 above consensus, a gap United says is worth roughly $1 per share.

The warning came alongside a strong quarter. Third-quarter revenue rose 17% to about $17.9 billion, with adjusted net income of $833 million. Premium and loyalty revenue each grew 17%, and basic economy rose 16%. But fuel spending rose nearly 62% in the quarter, and the new outlook caps full-year adjusted earnings at no more than $7.22 a share, versus the $9 to $11 range the airline gave in mid-July.

For travelers, the more interesting part is what United plans to do about it. Its CFO said in September to expect more fare increases and capacity cuts, and the airline expects to recover 100% of its fuel costs by the end of the year. CEO Scott Kirby argues higher fares will persist even if fuel prices fall.

United is not alone. Delta has already cut its 2026 earnings guidance to $5.10 to $5.60 from $6.50 to $7.50, attributing the entire reduction to fuel. When two of the largest carriers describe the same pressure, flyers booking holiday and winter trips should expect fares and schedules to reflect it.

Sources: Skift, United Airlines SEC filing