Boeing Sees China Nearly Doubling Its Fleet, but Airbus Leads There Today

Boeing expects China’s commercial aircraft fleet to more than double over the next two decades, to over 9,800 airplanes. The forecast anticipates Chinese carriers taking delivery of 9,240 new aircraft, with 42% replacing older models. Single-aisle jets dominate the projection at 7,215 deliveries, alongside 1,460 widebodies, 405 regional aircraft and 160 freighters.

Boeing ties the growth to passenger traffic rising about 5% a year, citing an expanding middle class, more visa-free travel destinations and continued infrastructure investment. It says China’s domestic market is expected to become the world’s largest by 2045, and that long-haul growth from China will outpace the rest of Asia, which could mean more international choices for travelers.

Boeing’s current footprint is smaller than the forecast might suggest. Cirium data for November 2026 shows Boeing aircraft flying 150,354 of China’s 391,760 domestic services, or 38.4%, while Airbus operates 209,331, about 53.4%. Chinese manufacturer COMAC accounts for 20,616 flights, around 5.3%, and its C919 narrowbody is already in production and delivery.

The forecast follows a year of improving US–China relations that has helped Boeing win orders and keep deliveries going. Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of commercial marketing, said the company’s partnership with China spans nearly 55 years. Because most future demand is for single-aisle jets, Boeing will have to compete with both Airbus and COMAC for those orders.

Sources: Simple Flying