Airfares rose 22.4 percent year over year in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, against overall inflation of 3.7 percent. A Fortune analysis published October 27 argues the pattern is deliberate: airlines are accepting emptier planes in exchange for higher prices as fuel costs bite.
The fuel numbers explain the pressure. Gulf Coast jet fuel has climbed about 91 percent, from $2.43 a gallon before the February war to $4.63 in October, per the Energy Information Administration. IATA projects fuel will make up nearly a third of airline operating costs in 2026, up from about a quarter last year.
The five largest US carriers collected roughly $8.8 billion more in passenger revenue in the third quarter, up about 18 percent, even though traffic grew less than 1 percent. American reported record third-quarter revenue of $16.3 billion, United’s leisure load factor slipped 1.3 points, and Southwest’s average fare rose 26.9 percent by the third quarter.
Delta expects about $4.5 billion in pre-tax profit while absorbing a $6 billion jump in fuel costs, and it trimmed its annual forecast. For travelers, the takeaway is that higher fares are a strategy, not an accident, so waiting for a price drop has become a riskier bet.
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